And it's not a bright one. Foot-and-mouth will be seen as just another
pothole on a poorly kept road.
The first eight weeks of the outbreak saw over two million head of
livestock condemned to slaughter. When all is done and dusted, perhaps
another million head will be lost, mainly to a voluntary animal welfare
program.
But last year, 3.6 million head were simply lost to economic conditions.
Since 1989, the U.K. livestock population has declined by 30 percent, an
average of 1.8 million head a year.
This has gone largely unnoticed. But it's a far grimmer legacy for the
industry than the foot-and-mouth outbreak. This silent cull has
provided, of course, little out of the ordinary to be photographed or
filmed and has passed virtually unnoticed by the mainstream media.
But for those involved, the losses were every bit as traumatic. The
foot-and-mouth victim at least has the solace of bad luck and public
sympathy. The victim of the silent cull is on his own to deal with the
inference of inadequacy and personal failure.
Certainly, he can expect little from a government, which seems to have
next to no interest in farming beyond minimizing costs to the exchequer.
Elsewhere in Europe, the pretense of truly commercial agriculture has
been largely abandoned in what are euphemistically called "less favored
areas." Tourism rules.
Much of the British livestock population, however, grazes land either
too wet or too hilly to accommodate anything else. It's country not
blessed with sunny weather and squeezing out agriculture won't naturally
turn the countryside into a tourist mecca.
This is something that's better understood by farmers than the
government. And as the gulf between urban and rural welfare widens and
resentment grows, resolving the situation becomes an increasingly
daunting challenge.
For CBC commentary, I'm David Walker, an agricultural economist, at
Lodge Farm Postwick in Broadland Norfolk, England.
David Walker was senior economist for Home-Grown Cereals Authority in
London and previously was executive director of the Alberta Grain
Commission. His opinions on British and European agricultural issues can
be found at www.openi.co.uk/